Conversations - Spring 2002


Content:
News
Investment Philosophy
National Advisors Trust

 

LWA NEWS

Diahann was named in the New Jersey Business News list of Who’s Who of New Jersey’s top business executives from around the state.

Suzanne Low has been inducted as President of the Financial Planning Association of Southwest Florida. Suzanne is in our Naples office. The FPA promotes the value and necessity of financial planning and acts as a vehicle for the success of the profession.

Diahann was quoted in the February, 2002, edition of Mutual Funds Magazine. Specifically, Diahann provided advice for young people investing in 401K plans.

Clare and information about LWA’s internal intranet were featured in an online article about "Knowledge Management Tools" by Ed McCarthy at http://wealth.bloomberg.com/wealth/front.html.

Diahann was also quoted in the March, 2002 issue of the Practical Accountant in an article entitled "Family Offices Come Downtown," which addresses the evolution of family office services. If you would like a copy of this article, please let us know.

Alan Lo will be a panel participant in a breakfast speakers session on "Starting a New Business" sponsored by the Suburban Chamber of Commerce, April 26, 2002.

Diahann is scheduled to appear on CNBC’s "Make Your Money Work" segment of Power Lunch on May 6th, June 17th, July 17th and August 19th.

Our girls’ 6th – 8th grade softball team is gearing up for a new season. We wish them good luck and will be there to cheer them on.

 

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

The Economy – For Better or Worse

By Gigi Collins, CFA

There are always two sides to a story – especially when you are talking about the U.S. economy. Even as the economic recovery numbers continue to flow in with positive indications, there are fears by some that all is not as it seems and that the upturn may be simply the outcome of another financial bubble.

These concerns are based on the fact that the recession of 2001 was unlike any other in the post-war period. Generally in a recession, there is a reduction in debt, a decline in the balance of payments deficit and a fall in consumer spending. None of these happened this time around. During this recession we were able to maintain high levels of consumption spending which was fueled by increasing house prices. The downturn in the 2001 economy was due to the rapid decline in corporate profits, collapse of the internet market bubble, and a sharp drop in business investment.

As for the recovery, some skeptics believe that consumer spending has leveled, while others see continued growth. Companies are forecasting weak capital spending through the end of the year. In fact, if consumer spending does level or decrease, second quarter GDP numbers could drop to a very modest level of growth. While this quarter's GDP growth numbers will be extremely positive, companies are still being cautious in their forecasts of future demand.

The flip side to the story of the economy may well be this. Stocks will be well-positioned whether it is a less robust or a more robust recovery since many companies have cut costs in the expectation of weak demand and poor sales. Many large companies have reduced overhead and pared back under-performing divisions in order to decrease operating expenses. These companies have been able to generate profits even in a down economy, and their leanness means that if the economic recovery is quicker than anticipated, the up side is that much greater: revenue will go directly to the bottom line.

Economic indicators seem to be showing that the U.S. economy is making a recovery from the 2001 recession. The following are encouraging signs:

  • GDP: The Commerce Department made a second revision of its estimate of the annual growth rate (GDP) in the fourth quarter of last year, lifting it to 1.7 percent, compared with its initial estimate of only 0.2 percent.

  • Inventories: Manufacturing activity in March rose to its highest level since February 2000 as factories boosted production to meet the biggest increase in demand in eight years.

  • Consumers: Consumer confidence continued to rise in March. The Conference Board Index jumped from 95 to 110.2, which was the largest monthly increase in the past decade. Consumers are feeling good about the future and are unlikely to curtail spending. In addition, consumers continue to handle their debt levels.

  • Housing: The housing market, which has been a bright spot in the economy for months, is still going strong. New home sales rose by 5.3% in February, and though existing home sales slipped 2.8%, month over month, the overall numbers were the second highest recorded in one month since 1968. Low mortgage rates and mild weather continued to help the housing market. Home refinancing has lowered monthly payments for millions of people, and that has boosted disposable income.

  • Unemployment: Unemployment has peaked with the overall unemployment rate stabilizing at around 5.5%.

 

As we can see, consumer spending and the degree of corporate capital expenditures are the big questions for future growth. Whatever the economy brings us, we know that we must deal with what it brings to our investment portfolios. The best defense in a recession and the best offense in a recovery are the same – stay diversified and stick with your asset allocation.

 

NATIONAL ADVISORS TRUST

Over the past several years, many of our clients have asked LWA to serve as trustee or successor trustee of their trusts. In the past, we could only serve as individuals because Lassus Wherley is not a regulated trust company. It can be an extremely technical responsibility and carries a high degree of fiduciary accountability. Now we can help our clients with this request and be assured they will get the best trust service available today, and we will continue to provide planning and investment service.

We are pleased to announce the availability of trust and custodial services offered by the National Advisors Trust Company FSB. The National Advisors Trust organization was founded by over 80 of America’s top financial advisory firms exclusively for their clients. LWA is one of the founding firms.

National Advisors Trust serves either as a custodian and/or a trustee of client accounts. As custodian, National Advisors Trust is responsible for the safekeeping of securities, collection of income for these securities, settlement of security trades directed by the client or their investment advisor, and payment of funds, when directed. As your investment advisor we can assist you and work closely with NATC.

As a trustee, National Advisors trust is required to interpret and act in accordance with the provisions of the trust document with respect to beneficiaries. The usual types of trustee appointments are for personal trusts, charitable trusts, life insurance trusts and trusts under a will. National Advisors Trust trustee services include asset custody.

We are very excited about our ability to serve many more of your future needs. Please let us know if you would like more information about our trust service capabilities through the NATC.

HAVE A WONDERFUL SPRING AND KEEP IN TOUCH. WE REALLY DO LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

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